Part of my success comes from playing multiple sports growing up, including on national, collegiate and Pre-Olympic levels, which gave me a strong understanding of athletes, coaches and their mentality in readying for opponents. Another large part of my success is my background in engineering, by attending a top 10 engineering school, and my training and years served as a licensed Professional Engineer that developed strong critical thinking tools with an advanced mathematics background. Lastly, its the hardworking mentality I was raised with and the brain-training ability I was taught that allows me to focus on real factors that determine game outcomes, and ignore aspects that may be flashier and garner national attention in sports TV and the internet.

When you combine these factors, you can see that the groundwork was laid long before today which gave me the skills to passionately research, expertly handicap and skillfully share my research with you. You will notice the difference between me and other handicappers simply by reading some of my play write-ups, which I am pleased to present below. Covering NFL points spreads is not just a hobby, it's a true passion of mine. It's second nature to me to analyze these games in this manner, and it is in this manner that I have been able to sustain unparalleled success. While others may claim to be the best handicappers, there are none that combine the long-term winning record along with the in-depth analysis shared weekly w/ clients.

Below is a glimpse of a few of my write-ups. These have quickly become known as the most in-depth, analytical, and well researched in the industry. Every single week, I open a glimpse into my mindset when it comes to breaking down NFL games. I love to research and share these insightful write-ups with clients. Here are just a few from 2014:

9/21/14 || 462 Cincinnati Bengals Under 43

Game Result: 40 points

The Bengals defense without Mike Zimmer are one of the better performing units in football, which may not have surprised many, but with my respect for Zimmer, they surprised me. They already played Joe Flacco on the road (Joe is very good in Baltimore) and Matt Ryan after that Falcons offense put up career numbers vs the Saints week 1. But they held Ryan & Flacco to 55.7% completions, only 576 total yds (5.43 YPA), 2 TDs/4 INTs and added 5 sacks.

They are rated 3rd in yds/pass allowed, 5th in yds/point allowed, 4th in red zone defense and 4th in pass defense efficiency. Overall, they are the 8th most efficient defense in the NFL.

They go up against Jake Locker and the Titans, who, vs the Dallas defense, struggled mightily at home. They recorded the worst 3rd down conversion rate, the 3rd fewest overall 1st downs, were 5th worst in EDSR offense and made it to the Dallas red zone just once, failing to convert.

The best thing going for the Titans was their run offense, which gained 6.3 ypc (3rd best) but they ran just 13 times (passed 34). Their defense did hold Romo to 5.1 yds/attempt, which was low, and forced him into a 89 passer rating, even though he didn't throw an interception.

So defensively, the Titans have some strength. They are 7th best in the red zone and on 3rd down, and are the 9th most efficient defense overall. They are 5th vs the pass and 2nd most efficient in pass pressure efficiency. So I look for the Bengals to take advantage of the weakness on the Titans defense, their run defense (22nd).

The only problem for the Bengals is they gained just 3.8 ypc vs the Falcons last week, but that didn't stop the coach (their former RB coach) from calling 45 run plays to only 24 pass plays. And that was against the Falcons 27th ranked run defense. So the moral here, if the same holds for this game, is the Bengals will run even if its only somewhat productive.

In their 24-10 win last week over the Falcons, the Bengals threw for 12.6 ypa, which was the best in the NFL by far, but there were some huge gains in the pass game. Without Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert, this pass offense was still productive. However, remember this statistic:

Andy Dalton's YAC accounts for 70.9% of his total passing yards. In other words, the ball travels in the air (air yards) just 29.1% of the time, and the rest has been YAC. They've just been very good in the YAC department thus far. But only Geno Smith has a higher % in the NFL.

It remains to be seen if AJ Green will play, but my numbers assume he is in there. If he's not, the under is an even stronger play.

12/14/14 || 322 Buffalo Bills +4.5

Game Result: Buffalo 21, Green Bay 13

For a number of reasons, the Packers struggle on the road this year. They are just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS. They have won just 1 game of those 6 by more than 3 points (vs the Bears). In addition, the Packers have the strange quirk of playing just 1 road game since week 8 prior to this one. It was week 12 vs the Vikings, which they won by just 3 points. Coming off the big Monday night win over the Falcons, in a game they scored a bunch but allowed a lot as well, there are a lot of negative trends to associate with the Packers.

Since inserting Kyle Orton into the lineup, the Bills lost just once at home by more than 4 points, and that was to the Patriots. This is the last home game for the Bills this season, and they still have the slightest shot at the playoffs, and they know it. They were very frustrated by the loss in Denver, as numerous calls went against them.

Oddly, the Packers defense has allowed every single trip into their red zone to be converted into a TD the last 3 weeks (vs MIN, NE and ATL). This will be vitally important this week because while the Bills are scoring 22 ppg this year, they are one of the league's worst red zone offenses. But examine this matchup:

The Bills offense is actually converting a better rate in the red zone the last 3 weeks than the Packers offense. And the Bills defense is holding opponents the last 3 weeks to fewer conversions as well. But the red zone TRIPS is the big factor. Offensively, the Packers avg over 4 trips/game, the 3rd most in the NFL. But on the road, they drop by 1 full trip (from 4.6 to 3.7). And now they must face the Bills defense, who allows just 2.6 red zone trips/game (4th best) and the best the Packers have faced since they lost 36-16 vs Seattle week 1.

My singular prime concern is this game is the tendency for the Bills secondary to get beat deep. Jordy Nelson could have a field day. But to do that, its incumbent that Rodgers has time in the pocket. And the Bills have the league's #1 pass rush efficiency defense. Its a far cry from what Green Bay saw last week from the Falcons (who rank 30th). I believe this game is decided upon whether or not the Bills can prevent the deep shots from Rodgers, and whether or not the Bills offense can convert at a respectable rate in the red zone.

10/19/14 || 461 Carolina Panthers Over 49.5

Game Result: 55 points

I mentioned strength of schedule in my weekly NFL podcast (which you should try to give a listen weekly) and how it was becoming more and more critical when trying to understand teams, because variance is so high on many teams on a week to week basis.

The key takeaway for this matchup? There is NO other matchup this weekend pitting 2 teams who have faced MORE BRUTAL defensive matchups.

The Packers have faced the 2nd hardest schedule from a defensive perspective. Just take a look: SEA, NYJ, DET, CHI, MIN, MIA. One of the main reasons I took this team when they were just a small 1-2 point favorite over CHI week 4? The Bears defense was NOTHING like the 3 they had to face prior. And sure enough, on the road no less, the Packers thumped the Bears, putting up 21 in the first half alone, and 38 for the game. Last week they played the 5th rated Dolphins, a much more difficult challenge, after playing the 26th ranked (at the time) Vikings. And they only put up 27 on the Dolphins. Against the current top 5 defenses (SEA, DET, MIA) the Packers put up 16, 7 and 27 points (avg of 17 ppg). Against the current ranked defenses they faced of NYJ (19th), CHI (8th), MIN (22nd) they put up 31, 38 and 42 (avg of 37 ppg).

Meanwhile, it seems obvious at this point in time that:

  • Cam's ankle was not 100% at the start of the season
  • Now it's much healthier
  • Due to the health of the Panthers backfield and their defense, the Panthers have no other options but to unleash Cam Newton, the runner

That combination was on full display last weekend. as Newton posted 391 all-purpose yards and 3 TDs. He's passing the ball extremely well this season (Carolina actually ranks 7th in pass efficiency, definitely higher than last year) but now, by necessity, they are adding back the read option which is tremendously effective. Far too many teams decided to take it AWAY from their offensive gameplan (see SF, WAS, SEA and CAR) but all of those teams were more effective when it was something the defense had to worry about and prepare for.

The Panthers have faced the 7th hardest opposing defenses this year. No team aside from the Panthers scored more than 17 points on the Lions defense this year. Carolina put up 24. And that was when Newton was still recovering to a large extent. He put up 20 vs TB, 24 vs Det, 19 vs Pit and 10 vs Baltimore in week 4. Then, the coordinator started opening up the offense a bit more for Newton as his ankle healed. Newton ran the ball just 2 times vs Pit and 2 times vs Bal. The next week vs the Bears, Newton ran it 6 times in the Panthers win, and last week vs the Bengals, he ran it 17 times. The past two weeks, the Panthers put up 31 and 37 ppg.

In the first 5 games, he ran the ball out of read-option plays just TWICE. Last week, he ran it TEN TIMES out of read-option plays!

So what do these teams have in common?
  1. Its the ONLY matchup this weekend where both offenses are top 7 in pass efficiency.
  2. Its the ONLY matchup where both teams have played top 7 opposing defenses this season.
  3. Its the ONLY matchup where both teams rank 25th or worse in 3rd down defense.
  4. Its the 2nd BEST matchup from an O v D in both teams for red zone offense.
  5. Its the 2nd BEST matchup from an O v D of both teams for 30 & In TD %.

Its no secret that Dom Capers Packers defense has struggled big time vs dual-threat QBs. Remember how Colin Kaepernick owns the Packers (SF is 4-0 vs GB since 2012, producing 33 ppg)? In fact, aside from the "Fail Mary" with replacement refs (wk 3, 2012 in Seattle) and the "sub-zero" freeze game in the playoffs last year, the Packers have NEVER gone under the total vs a running QB: 5-0 to the over, eclipsing the 47 pt total by 13 ppt.

Then you factor in that the Packers are 22nd in pass rush efficiency and will be without starting CB Sam Shields, and have their other starting CB Tramon Williams listed as questionable with an ankle injury. Even if he goes, he could be a step slow.

As far as the matchup for Rodgers, he has to be salivating over this Panthers defense. Not only is it much weaker than the average he's faced, the past 4 games it's grown increasingly horrible. They are allowing a whopping 75% completions, 8.1 yds/pass and a 9:4 TD:Int ratio to Big Ben, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. While all of those QBs are good, there really is no comparing any of the AFC North guys to Rodgers, and Cutler is certainly solid but a step down from Rodgers. Meanwhile, the Panthers are giving up 5.8 yds/carry and 5 TDs to those last 4 opponents as well.

Rodgers himself is on a ridiculous roll of 14:0 TD:Int the past 5 weeks. And Eddie Lacy certainly has to be looking at some opportunities to do some damage vs this poor Packers run defense. As such, you have BIG edges in both phases for the Packers offense: air and ground.

The Packers have gone over the total in 8 of 12 home games since 2011 with a total set above 47, including a perfect 6-0 if the game is non-divisional, eclipsing the avg 51 point line by 11 ppg.